The Diamondbacks and Reds will begin a four-game series tonight in Cincinnati and Jules Posner of The Action Network is here to share his best bets (video above).
For his first play, Posner is targeting over 10 runs which comes in at -115 on BetMGM. Posner expects both teams’ pitching to struggle in this contest.
Beginning with the Diamondbacks, Posner says that Monday’s starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner has run very lucky of late away from home.
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MLB picks and player prop bets today
Reds vs. Diamondbacks ‘over’ 10 runs (-115)
“So far on the road, [Bumgarner] has a 3.52 ERA,” Posner says. “But, he has a 5.02 FIP and a 4.86 xFIP.”
That suggest Bumgarner could see some negative regression tonight against a Reds offense that has performed significantly above the average of late in one specific situation. Over the last month, the Reds’ offense is fifth league-wide in team wRC+ at home against left-handed pitchers.
However, this is also a Reds bullpen that ranks dead-last in Major League Baseball in team ERA, so Posner expects the Diamondbacks offense will see its fair share of chances to get on the board and contribute to the total.
Plus, the Reds are deploying Hunter Greene as its starting pitcher tonight. Greene has struggled immensely at home, posting a 6.59 ERA and 7.10 FIP.
Josh Rojas ‘over’ 1.5 total bases +120 (FanDuel)
Given those pitching trends for the Reds, Posner is also looking to back a few Diamondbacks total bases prop bets. The first player he’s backing is Josh Rojas, who has played brilliantly of late.
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“Rojas has hit safely in four of his last five games and, over the past three weeks against right-handed pitchers on the road, he has a .363 batting average and is slugging .818,” Posner explains.
Ketel Marte ‘over’ 1.5 total bases +116 (Caesars)
The other player worth investigating is Ketel Marte, who just had a 16-game hit streak snapped Sunday.
But, over that span, Marte posted a batting average of .393 and a slugging percentage north of .500. Against a weak pitcher in Greene, expect Marte to rediscover his offensive form.
For those reasons, Posner likes both players over 1.5 total bases tonight in Cincinnati.
